Bankroll and Unit-Stake Calculator
Bankroll and Unit-Stake Calculator
Explore fixed-unit exposure, loss sequences and optional session boundaries in a declared 3% model. Amounts are in USD.
Strict rule: Shut down the session immediately upon touching this threshold. Prevents revenge betting and catastrophic tilt.
Lock in positive variance before the 3.0% negative expectation inevitably erodes your short-term lucky streak.
EMPIRICAL LOSING STREAK PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION (P(L) = 1 - P(Win))
| Loss Streak Length (m) | Probability of Losing m in a row | Remaining Balance at Unit Stake |
|---|
The declared model has negative expected return, so the constrained Kelly optimum is a zero stake. A recreational fraction is a chosen spending limit, not a profitable Kelly strategy or a survival guarantee. The minimum illustrative stake is 0.10 USD; the output shows its actual share of your bank.
CHOOSE A PLATFORM WITH CLEAR GAME AND CASHIER RULES
Never gamble with funds required for essentials. If deploying disciplined bankroll management, verify that your casino separates your deposited cash from promotional bonus wagering.
A stake that fits your budget still carries risk. Set an affordable spending limit and check the selected game rules.
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Frequently Asked Questions: Bankroll Management & Kelly Criterion
Does this calculator find a profitable Kelly stake?
No. Under the declared model p = 0.97/k, the unconstrained fraction is -0.03/(k-1). With no short betting, the optimum is zero. The displayed recreational fraction is a chosen spending limit. A 0.10 USD minimum can exceed that fraction; the actual percentage is shown.
What do the loss sequences and session limits mean?
For fixed stakes, q^m is the probability of losing the next m independent rounds, not of seeing such a streak anywhere in a longer session. A stake equal to 1% of the initial bank costs half that bank after 50 consecutive losses; recalculating 1% of the remaining bank gives a different path. The -20% and +30% boundaries are optional examples, not proven psychological thresholds or survival guarantees.